After two epochs we can conclude with confidence: given their current size, all of our pools will reliably produce blocks and rewards going forward. Every epoch!

And, with the increasing decentralization factor of the network (currently 20%, expected to increase with at least 2% every epoch), the reassurance of a steady rewards stream will solidify further every epoch.

The risk of saturation, with a significant negative impact on rewards, should not be underestimated.

As we will mathematically demonstrate in an upcoming blog post, saturation currently occurs with ca. 57 produced blocks, which is already reached by several pools.

And, with the possibility of 150% block assignment, as seen on the ITN, even 135M pools are not free from saturation-risks!

By itself, one single saturated epoch may not seem so dramatic, but it will quickly undo the small theoretical ROS benefit, which these large pools seemingly offer over smaller pools.

We've added a handy little epoch block counter on our homepage, which also lets you check how much time there's left until the next epoch starts.

And, thanks to fellow pool operator Smaug, you can now track all of your favourite pool's movements in a very elegant way. Try it out below!

Take this statement with a grain of salt as you wish, but experience from the ITN has told me there is some truth in it!

Whenever a pool posts much higher rewards than the one you're delegated to, this is usually due to luck, with exceptionally high block assignment for a single or a short series of epochs.

But since statistical averages cannot be messed with, great epochs will at some point always be followed by not-so-great, or even outright horrible epochs. Let me tell you our staking4ADA pools have had their fair share on the ITN as well!

So, you wait for another pool to peak, re-delegate to that pool and you can bet your sweet little *ss that pool is going to perform miserably the moment you're in it 😲...

...while the pool you were unhappy with, was just about to start its winning streak for the year 😤.

With 5-day epochs, patience will be key my friends!

Happy staking!🌞

Jos.